Stefan Trueck
- Title: Professor
- Position: Co-Director Centre for Financial Risk - Department of Applied Finance and Actuarial Studies
Contact Details
- Ph: (61-2) 9850 8483
- Email
Stefan Trueck
- Fax: (+61-2) 9850 6069
- Room: 433, building: E4A
Areas of Expertise
- Risk Management (Credit and Operational Risk),
- Asset Pricing,
- Energy Markets
- Financial Economics
- Carbon Trading and Economics of Climate Change
- Real Estate Economics
- Econometrics of Financial Markets.
Profile
Stefan joined Macquarie University in July 2007. He has held positions at Queensland University of Technology and University of Karlsruhe in Germany where he received a PhD in Statistics. His current research interests focus on risk management and financial econometrics including the fields of credit risk, operational risk, power markets, emissions trading and real estate finance. He further has several years of consulting experience for financial institutions in Europe. Stefan also has a strong research portfolio and has published or has forthcoming papers in international high impact journals including The Journal of Banking and Finance, European Journal of Finance, Energy Economics, The Economic Record, Global Environmental Change, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, The Journal of Credit Risk, Computational Statistics, Physika A – Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Studies on Non-Linear Dynamics & Econometrics and Journal of Property Investment and Finance. He also holds two ARC Discovery Grants on "Managing the risk of price spikes, dependencies and contagion effects in Australian electricity markets" and "Risk management with real-time financial and business conditions indicators."
Research grants
- Managing the Risk of Price Spikes, Dependencies and Contagion Effects in Australian Electricity Markets, ARC Discovery Grant, Jan 2010 - Dec 2012 (AUD $170,000).
- "The Analysis and Management of Risk in Australian Financial Markets using Dynamic Semi-Parametric Factor Models," Macquarie University Safety Net Grant, Jan 2011 - Dec 2011. (AUD $20,000).
- Risk management with real-time financial and business conditions indicators, ARC Discovery Grant, Jan 2012 - Dec 2014 (AUD $255,000)
- "Developing an Excel spread sheet tool for local governments to compare and prioritise investment in climate adaptation," NCCARF Adaptation Grant Scheme, Jan 2012 – March 2013 (AUD $175,000).
Publications
Refereed Journal Articles
- Kochi, India case study of climate adaptation to floods: ranking local government investment options (with S. Mathew, A Henderson-Sellers), Global Environmental Change 22, 2012.
- The relationship between carbon, commodity and financial markets - a copula analysis (with M. Gronwald and J. Ketterer), Economic Record 87, September, 2011.
- Interaction between Australian Carbon Prices and Energy Prices (with D. Cotton), Australasian Journal of Environmental Management 18(4), 2011.
- Style Factors and Value-at-Risk of Asia-Focused hedge funds (with H. Weng), Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 19(5), 2011.
- Assessing uncertainty and risk in public sector investment projects (with K. Bock), in Technology and Investment 2(2), 2011.
- Returns of REITS and Stock Markets – Measuring Dependence and Risk (with N. Rong), in Journal of Property Investment and Finance 28(1), 2010.
- Evaluation of Investment Options Mitigating Catastrophic Losses under the Impacts of Climate Change (with C. Truong), Environmental Economics 1(2), 2010.
- Modeling the Price Dynamics of CO2 Emission Allowances (with E. Benz), in Energy Economics 31(1), 2009.
- Risk and Return in European Property Markets – an Empirical Investigation (with D. Lorenz), in Journal of European Real Estate Research 1(3), 2008.
- Forecasting Credit Migration Matrices with Business Cycle Effects - A Model Comparison, in European Journal of Finance 14(5), 2008.
- Spot and Derivative pricing in the EEX Power Market (with M. Bierbrauer, C. Menn, S.T. Rachev), in Journal of Banking and Finance 31(11), 2007.
- Quantifying Risk in the Electricity Business: A RAROC-based Approach (with M. Prokopczuk, S.T. Rachev, G. Schindlmayr), in Energy Economics 29(5), 2007.
- Exploring the Relationship between Market Value and Sustainable Construction (with D. Lorenz and T. Lützkendorf), in Property Management 25(2), 2007.
- Modeling Catstrophe Claims with Left-Truncated Severity Distributions (with K. Burnecki, A. Chernobai, S.T. Rachev and R. Weron), in Computational Statistics 21(4), 2006.
- Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series (with R. Weron, A. Misiorek), in Studies in Non-Linear Dynamics & Econometrics 10(3), 2006.
- Addressing Risk and Uncertainty in Property Valuations (with D. Lorenz and T. Lützkendorf), in Journal of Property Investment and Finance 24(5), 2006.
- CO2 Emission Allowances Trading in Europe – Specifying a new Class of Assets (with E. Benz), in Problems and Perspectives in Management 3(3), 2006.
- Asset Correlations and Capital Requirements for SMEs under the Revised Basel II Framework (with J. Henneke), in Banks and Bank Systems, 1(1), 2006.
- Credit Portfolio Risk and PD Confidence Sets through the Business Cycle (with S.T. Rachev), in Journal of Credit Risk, 1 (4), 2005.
- Auswirkungen der neuen Basler Eigenkapitalvereinbarung auf die Finanzierung von KMU (with J. Henneke), in Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 74 (4), 2005.
- Stable Modeling of different European Power Markets (with C. Mugele and S.T. Rachev), in Investment Management & Financial Innovations, 2(3), 2005.
- A Note on the Estimation of the Frequency and Severity Distribution of Operational Losses (with A. Chernobai, C. Menn and S.T. Rachev), in Applied Probability Trust, 30(2), 2005.
- Modelling Electricity Prices with Regime Switching Models (with R.Weron and M. Bierbrauer), in Lecture Notes in Computer Sciences 3039, 2004.
- Modelling Electricity Prices: Jump Diffusion and Regime Switching (with R.Weron and M. Bierbrauer), in Physica A – Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 336, Elsevier 2004.
- Basel II: Letzte Änderungen der Risikogewichtskurve im IRB-Ansatz (with F. Hausen and S.T. Rachev), in Kreditwesen 23, 2004.
- The Term Structure of Credit Spreads and Credit Default Swaps – an Empirical Investigation (with M. Laub and S.T. Rachev), in Investment Management & Financial Innovations 3/2004.
Books
Contributions to Refereed Books and Proceedings Volumes
- Estimation of Operational Value-at-Risk with Minimum Collection Thresholds, (with A. Chernobai, C. Menn and S.T. Rachev), in: Rösch and Scheule (eds), Model Risk in financial crises - challenges and solution for financial risk models, Risk Books 2010.
- Assessing climate change adaptation options for local government (with W. Bradford, A. Henderson-Sellers, S. Mathew, J. Scott, M. Street and R. Taplin), in: Henderson-Sellers and You (eds), Climate Change Monitoring and Strategy, Sydney University Press 2010.
- Recent Advances in Credit Risk Management (with F. Morley, B. Racheva), in: G. Bol et al. (eds), Risk Assessment: Decisions in Banking and Finance, Physika Verlag, 2008.
- Hedgefonds im Risikomanagement (with F. Hausen and S. T. Rachev), in: Erben, R. (ed), Risikomanager Jahrbuch 2008, Bank-Verlag, 2008.
- Treatment of Incomplete Data in the Field of Operational Risk: The Effects on Parameter Estimates, EL and UL Figures (with A. Chernobai, C. Menn, S.T. Rachev, M. Moscadelli), in: E. Davis (ed), The Advanced Measurement Approach to Operational Risk, Risk Books, 2006.
- Time Series Properties of a Rating System based on Financial Ratios (with U. Krueger and M. Stötzel), in Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper Series: Banking & Financial Studies 14, 2005.
- Loss Given Default und Recovery Rates - eine Einführung (with J. Deidersen, P. Niebling and S.T. Rachev), in Modernes Risikomanagement, Frank Romeike (ed), Wiley, 2004.
- Estimation, Adjustment and Application of Transition Matrices in Credit Risk Models (with. E. Özturkmen) in Handbook: Computational & Numerical Methods in Finance, Birkhauser, 2004.
- Credit Risk Models in Practice – a Review (with J. Peppel) in Credit Risk: Measurement, Evaluation and Management, Physika, 2003.
- Approaches to Credit Risk in the New Basel Capital Accord (with A. Benzin and S.T. Rachev) in Credit Risk: Measurement, Evaluation and Management, Physika, 2003.
Monographs
- Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk - Theory and Application of Migration Matrices (with S.T. Rachev), Academic Press, Elsevier.
PhD Student Supervision
- Principal Supervisor of Deborah Joan Cotton - PhD-Economics Research - Part Time
- Principal Supervisor of Lurion Mario De Mello - PhD-Economics Research - Full Time
- Principal Supervisor of Katia Ignatieva - PhD-Economics Research - Full Time
- Principal Supervisor of Haijie Weng - PhD-Economics Research - Full Time
- Associate Supervisor of Jie Ding - PhD-Economics Research - Full Time
- Associate Supervisor of Ning Rong - PhD-Economics Research - Full Time
Research Interests
- Risk management (Credit and Operational Risk)
- Asset Pricing
- Energy Markets
- Financial Economics
- Carbon Trading and Economics of Climate Change
- Real Estate Economics
- Econometrics of Financial Markets
Committee / Board Membership
- German Finance Association
- European Working Group of Financial Modelling
- Econometric Society
- International Association for Energy Economics
- Financial Integrity Research Network (FIRN)


Refereed Journal Articles