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Lance Fisher

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Lance Fisher
  • Title: Professor
  • Positions:
    • Head of Department - Department of Economics
    • Professor - Department of Economics
  • Qualifications: Bachelor of Arts (Honours Class 1), Macquarie University; Master of Commerce (Honours), University of New South Wales; Doctor of Philosophy, University of Minnesota

Contact Details

Areas of Expertise

  • Macroeconomics,
  • Time Series Econometrics

Profile

Professor Fisher was appointed Professor of Economics at Macquarie University in February, 2008. Previously he was with the Department of Economics at the University of New South Wales for twenty years. He has held visiting appointments at several universities, including Virginia Tech, Yonsei, the Australian National University and the University of Melbourne. He has also been a visiting fellow at the Reserve Bank of Australia. Lance's principal area is macroeconomics and macroeconomic modelling.

Prof. Fisher has investigated identification methods in structural macroeconomic models. He has applied these methods to the study of consumption and wealth in Australia and the United States and to the study of business cycles more generally. He has estimated predictive models for government expenditure and asset returns. His work on asset return predictability forms the basis for his current research with Professor Geoffrey Kingston on managing superannuation in later life.

Education

  • Doctor of Philosophy: Economics (University of Minnesota)
  • Master of Commerce: Economics (University of New South Wales)
  • Bachelor of Arts (Honours Class 1): Economics (Macquarie University)

Research grants

  • Australian Research Council Discovery Grant, 'Endgame: managing superannuation in later life' (DP120102239), $60,000 for 2012, $60,000 for 2013 and $50,000 for 2014, co-chief investigator with Geoffrey Kingston, Hazel Bateman, George Milunovich and Susan Thorpe.
  • Australian Research Council Discovery Grant, 'Security in Retirement: Forecasting and Managing Macro Investment Risks' (DP0877219), $108,000 for 2008 and $110,000 for each of the years 2009 and 2010, co-chief investigator with Geoffrey Kingston, Hazel Bateman, Ken Clements and Susan Thorpe.
  • Australian Research Council Discovery Grant, 'Risk Management for Bonds, Currencies and Commodities' (DP0556775), $80,000 for each of the years 2005, 2006 and 2007, co-chief investigator with Geoffrey Kingston, Hazel Bateman, Ken Clements and Susan Thorp.
  • Australian Research Council Discovery Grant, 'Investing over the Life Cycle' (DP0208912), $35,000 for 2002, $45,000 for 2003 and $40,000 for 2004, co-chief investigator with Geoffrey Kingston, Hazel Bateman, Mike Sherris and Bill Schworm.
  • Australian Research Council Small Grant, 'Public Investment and Economic Growth', $10,700, 1993, co-chief investigator with Glenn Otto and Graham Voss.

Current projects

  • Identification methods in macroeconometric models.
  • On structural models of US consumption and wealth.
  • Asset return predictability and managing superannuation in later life.

Research areas

Professor Fisher's research has focussed on macroeconomic modeling and, particularly, on ways to address the identification problem in structural macroeconomic models. He has applied macroeconometric methods to evaluate the predictive content of theory-based information variables for forecasting government outlays, inflation, exchange rates and asset returns.

Publications

journal toggle icon open Refereed Journal Articles

  • Kingston, G. and L. Fisher ''Down the retirement risk zone with gun and camera'' Economic Papers Vol.33, No 2, June 2014, pp. 153 - 162.
  • Fisher L.A. and H-S Huh "Identification Methods in Vector-Error Correction Models: Equivalence Results" Journal of Economic Surveys Vol.28, No.1, February 2014, pp.1-16.
  • Fisher, L.A., H-S Huh and G. Otto "Structural Cointegrated Models of US Consumption and Wealth" Journal of Macroeconomics Vol. 34, No. 4, December 2012, pp. 1111-1124.
  • Zaidi, M. A. S. and L. A. Fisher "Monetary Policy and Foreign Shocks: A SVAR Analysis for Malaysia" Korea and the World Economy Vol. 11, No. 3, December 2010, pp. 527-550.
  • Fisher L.A., G. Otto and G.M. Voss "The Response of Australian Consumption to Housing  Wealth" Journal of Macroeconomics Vol. 32, No. 1, March 2010, pp. 284-299.
  • Fisher L.A. "Consumption, Wealth and Expected Stock Returns in Australia: Some Further Results" Applied Financial Economics Letters Vol. 4, No 1, 2008, pp. 13-18.
  • Fisher L.A. and H-S Huh "Permanent - Transitory Decompositions under Weak Exogeneity" Econometric Theory Vol. 23, No.1, February 2007, pp. 183-189.
  • Fisher L.A. and G.H. Kingston "Joint Implications of Consumption and Tax Smoothing" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Vol. 37, No. 6, December 2005, pp. 1101-1119.
  • Fisher L.A. and G.M. Voss "Consumption, Wealth and Expected Stock Returns in Australia" Economic Record Vol. 80, No. 251, December 2004, pp. 359-372. [lead article in issue].
  • Fisher L.A. and G.H. Kingston "Theory of Tax Smoothing in the Small Open Economy" Economics Letters Vol. 85, No.1, October 2004, pp. 1-7. [lead article in issue].
  • Fisher L.A., H-S Huh and E.W. Tallman "Permanent Income and Transitory Variation in Investment and Output" Journal of Macroeconomics Vol. 25, No. 2, June 2003, pp. 149-168. [lead article in issue].
    Also published as Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper 2001-17, October 2001. 
  • Fisher L.A. and H-S Huh "Real Exchange Rates, Trade Balances and Nominal Shocks: Evidence for the G-7" Journal of International Money and Finance Vol. 21, No. 4, August 2002, pp. 497-518.
  • Fisher L.A., H-S Huh and P.M. Summers "Structural Identification of Permanent Shocks in VEC Models: A Generalization", Journal of Macroeconomics Vol. 22, No. 1, Winter 2000, pp. 53-68.
  • Fisher L.A. and H-S Huh "Weak Exogeneity and Long-run and Contemporaneous Identifying Restrictions in Vector-Error Correction Models" Economics Letters Vol. 63, No. 2, May 1999, pp. 159-165.
  • Fisher L.A. "Sources of Exchange Rate and Price Level Fluctuations in Two Commodity Exporting Countries: Australia and New Zealand" Economic Record Vol. 72, No. 219, December 1996, pp. 345-358.
  • Fisher L.A., G.M. Voss and G. Otto "Australian Business Cycle Facts" Australian Economic Papers Vol. 35, No. 67, December 1996, pp. 300-320.
  • Fisher L.A. and H-S Huh "Sources of Fluctuations in Australian Imports" Applied Economics Letters Vol. 3, No. 9, September 1996, pp. 563-566.
  • Fisher L.A., P.L. Fackler and D. Orden "Long-Run Identifying Restrictions for an Error-Correction Model of New Zealand Money, Prices and Output" Journal of International Money and Finance Vol. 14, No. 1, February 1995, pp. 127-147.
  • Bewley R., D. Orden, M. Yang and L.A. Fisher "Comparison of Box-Tiao and Johansen Canonical Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors in VEC(1) Models" Journal of Econometrics Vol. 64, No. 1-2, Sept-Oct 1994, pp. 3-27. [lead article in issue].
  • Orden D. and L.A. Fisher "Financial Deregulation and the Dynamics of Money, Prices, and Output in New Zealand and Australia" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Vol. 25, No.2, May 1993, pp. 273-292.
  • Fisher L.A. and P.A. Richardson "Stochastic Trends in Consumption and the Term Structure of Interest Rates" Journal of Macroeconomics  Vol. 14, No. 2, Spring 1992, pp. 289-304.
  • Orden D. and L.A. Fisher "Macroeconomic Policy and Agricultural Economics Research" American Journal of Agricultural Economics Vol.73, No.5, December 1991, pp. 1348-1354.
  • Fisher L.A. and A.D. Owen "An Economic Model of the U.S. Aluminium Market" Resources Policy Vol. 7, No. 3, September 1981, pp. 150-160.

conference toggle icon open Conferences and Presentations

  • Fisher L.A., H-S Huh and G. Otto 'Structural Models of US Consumption and Wealth', presented at the 17th Australasian Macroeconomics Workshop, Monash University, Caulfield Campus, 12-13 April, 2012.
  • Fisher, L.A. and H-S Huh 'Identification Methods in Vector-Error Correction Models: Equivalence Results', presented to the VAR Modelling: Course and Workshop, University of Tasmania, 20-23 February, 2012.
  • Fisher L.A., G. Otto and G.M. Voss 'Housing Booms, Non-Financial Wealth and Consumption: Lessons from the Australian Experience' Proceedings of the 35th Australian Conference of Economists, 25-27 September 2006, Curtin University of Technology, Session 19: Finance III. ISBN No. 1-74067-501-0. Also published in the Proceedings of the Econometric Society Australasian Meetings (ESAM06), Alice Springs, Northern Territory, 4-7 July 2006, Session 35: Macroeconomic Modelling. Also published in the Proceedings of the Graduate Research Workshop, Department of Economics, Yonsei University, held on Jeju Island, South Korea from 1-3 February 2007 and sponsored by the Brain Korea 21 program.
  • Fisher, L.A., H-S Huh and E.W. Tallman 'Permanent Income and Transitory Variation in Investment and Output' Proceedings of the Econometric Society Australasian Meetings (ESAM02), Queensland University of Technology, July 2002.
  • Fisher, L.A. and H-S Huh 'Real Exchange Rates, Trade Balances and Nominal Shocks: Evidence for the G-7' Proceedings of the Econometric Society Australasian Meetings (ESAM01), University of Auckland, New Zealand, July 2001.
  • Fisher L.A. and G.H. Kingston 'Permanent Income, Tax Smoothing and Forecasts of Government Expenditure in the United States: 1929-1994' Electronic Proceedings of the 8th World Congress of the Econometric Society, University of Washington, Seattle, USA, August, 2000. http://www.econometricsociety.org/meetings/wc00/Contributed.htm . Also published in the Proceedings of the Econometric Society Australasian Meetings (ESAM99), University of Technology, Sydney, July 1999. http://www.bus.uts.edu.au/fin&econ/conferences/esam99/submitted.htm . Also published as UNSW School of Economics Discussion Paper 2001/10, ISBN No. 0-7334-1880. http://www.economics.unsw.edu.au/ .
  • Fisher L.A. 'Sources of Exchange Rate and Price Level Fluctuations in Two Commodity Exporting Countries: Australia and New Zealand' Proceedings of the 24th Australian Conference of Economists, University of Adelaide, September 1995.
  • Fisher L.A., G. Otto and G.M. Voss 'Australian Business Cycle Facts' Proceedings of the Econometric Society Australasian Meetings (ESAM94), University of New England, July 1994.
  • Fisher L.A., P.L. Fackler and D. Orden 'Long-run Identifying Restrictions for an Error-Correction Model of New Zealand Money, Prices and Output' Proceedings of the Econometric Society Australasian Meetings (ESAM92), Monash University, July 1992.
  • Orden D. and L.A. Fisher 'Financial Deregulation and the Dynamics of Money, Prices and Output in New Zealand and Australia' Proceedings of the 19th Australian Conference of Economists, University of New South Wales, September 1990.

Professional Membership

  • Member of: American Economic Association, Nashville United States of America
  • Member of: Economic Society of New South Wales, Sydney Australia

phd supervision toggle icon open PhD Student Supervision

Current:

  • Principal Supervisor of Prashan Karunaratne - "Credit Markets and Business Cycles"
  • Principal Supervisor of Anh Tuan Bui - "Financial Markets"
  • Associate supervisor of Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi (University of New South Wales) - "Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy in Malaysia"

Recent:

  • Associate Supervisor of Mohamed Alisabri Haniffa (2012)
  • Associate Supervisor of Rudi Kurniawan - "Essays on tax smoothing and fiscal policy sustainability in Indonesia" (2012)
  • Associate Supervisor of Peng Zhou - "Non-stationary time series and panel data" (2013)