A2B Symposium - Academic 2 Business - Research informing Business
19th November 2014, InterContinental Sydney, 117 Macquarie St, Sydney NSW, Australia
Professor Stefan Trueck
Topic: Real-Time Business and Financial Conditions Indicators
(Joint work with Prof Jeffrey Sheen, Dr. Chi Truong and Dr. Ben Wang,
Faculty of Business and Economics, Macquarie University)
We develop unobservable business and financial conditions indicators for Australia and different regions in the world. The proposed framework can accommodate a combination of macroeconomic and financial factors arriving at mixed frequencies. For Australia, we find important links between the derived domestic and external indices, consistent with the small open economy assumption. A business confidence measure and the terms of trade play significant roles for the indices, making them leading indicators. We also develop an early-warning indicator for systemic risk and illustrate its usefulness for deriving probabilities for systemically relevant defaults in the financial industry.
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